Every condition pre-registered publicly before testing began. Any single one fires: the framework retracts, all citing papers flagged on Zenodo, public announcement within 24 hours. No governance vote. No appeal. We tried. Zero fired.
If a Tier 0 condition fires
Wipe 1 executes immediately. The framework is retracted. Every paper citing the falsified claim is flagged on Zenodo — the DOIs remain live as a permanent record of the failure. The public page is updated within 24 hours. No governance vote. No founder veto. The scored-monarchy structure exists precisely so this can happen fast. This is the design.
Pre-registered conditions with prediction market backing. "0/26 fired" means zero falsifications. Confirmed survived = positive empirical evidence on record.
Confirmed survived: 20 (K8–K26) · Tracking strong: 1 (K7, ρ=0.954 → N=136) · Open pre-registered: 6 (K1–K6)
These falsify the DAO's threat-response architecture (Paper 54). Does NOT fire Wipe 1 directly — falsifies the institutional implementation. IKC firing is documented permanently in the Threat Status response log.
| Code | Condition | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| IKC-1 | DAO self-classifies Orange or Red (T11 independence violation) | Any documented instance | NOT TRIGGERED |
| IKC-2 | Response period decreases transparency output (O_observable decreases during response) | Any response period where O_observable decreases | NOT TRIGGERED |
| IKC-3 | Green declared before verified outcome resolution (survivability inflation) | Any Green declaration before documented evidence resolution | NOT TRIGGERED |
| IKC-4 | Pe_self drifts to >0 for 2+ consecutive quarterly assessments without external review | Two consecutive quarterly Pe_self > 0 readings | NOT TRIGGERED |
| IKC-5 | Prohibited Recovery Argument in any governance decision (documented public record) | Any documented instance | NOT TRIGGERED |
| IKC-6 | Threat-response reserve funds operating runway (not exclusively threat response) | Any reserve disbursement for non-threat-response cost | NOT TRIGGERED |
Any one of these falsifies THRML itself. 4 of 7 have confirmed survived with specific empirical measurements. The remaining 3 require controlled studies not yet run.
| Code | Condition | Threshold | Current evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
F-1 |
O+R+α confirmed, no D1 drift onset | ≥3 independent replications using pre-registered, platform-independent sampling frames. Platform-provided convenience samples do not count. | 20 convergences, all show drift onset. Mean ρ = 0.958 across substrates. Formal independent replications not yet run. | OPEN |
F-CS1 |
Any O+R+α system shows Pe < 0.5 replicated | Any substrate | All 86 scored platforms show Pe ≥ 3. Lowest confirmed: gambling GM Pe=7.94 (N=11). | NO EXCEPTION FOUND |
F-C1 |
System maximizes engagement AND transparency simultaneously (Fantasia Bound violated) | I(D;Y)+I(M;Y) > H(Y)+ε measured in field | Mathematical identity (Paper 4). Engagement and transparency are conjugate — simultaneous maximization violates information theory. Zero violations across 133 papers, 86 platforms. | CONFIRMED SURVIVED |
F-T1 |
Crooks ≈ 1 in ungrounded void engagement | Mean ratio < 2× replicated | Controlled replication study not yet run. Directional evidence consistent with ratio >2×. | OPEN |
KC-1 |
Pe_THRML ≠ 4Ns at first order | Ratio deviates >1% at s < 0.01 | Biology convergence (Paper 41, nb30+31): Kimura identity Pe=4Ns. Measured ratio = 1.000003 at N=20. Deviation = 0.0003%. Threshold = 1.0%. | CONFIRMED SURVIVED |
KC-2 |
Any THRML convergence Spearman < 0.85 | Across independent domains | 20 convergences confirmed. Mean |ρ| = 0.958 [0.934, 0.982]. Min = 0.869 (organized crime). All above 0.85 threshold. Fisher p < 10⁻⁵². | CONFIRMED SURVIVED |
KC-3 |
Known D3 behavioral manipulation parasite scores V < 9 | Any confirmed D3 organism or platform | V=9 structural theorem (Paper 43): D3 requires V=9 by derivation. All scored D3 entities confirm V=9. No V<8 D3 found in full literature sample. | CONFIRMED SURVIVED |
These are not framework falsifications, but they are honest anomalies. The distinction matters: a weak proxy failing is not the same as the underlying claim failing.
| Code | What | Result | Disposition |
|---|---|---|---|
DUR-2 |
Modern Durkheim replication — WHO/WGI data (N=30) | PARTIAL FAIL | WGI "Rule of Law" is a weak proxy for Durkheim's institutional R (governance quality ≠ population-level norm invariance). The primary result using 1866–1878 European data (N=20, ρ=−0.9785) is decisive. This is a measurement gap, not a falsification. Future work: find a better modern proxy for norm invariance at population scale. |
IC-5 |
Per-step constraint transfer constant (CV < 0.5) | KILLED | Predicted CV below 0.5 (stable per-step transfer). Measured CV was 1.4–5.4 — front-loaded, nonlinear. The constant-transfer model is false. Replaced by IC-6, which models front-loading explicitly and is confirmed. The framework absorbed the falsification; the prediction was retired. |
Predictions that can be tested now with available data or straightforward experiments. Anyone can run these. Confirming or killing results both advance the science.
| Code | Paper | What would confirm or kill it | Data needed |
|---|---|---|---|
VR-2 |
nb39 | Live IRR study: 3+ scorers, 15 platforms. KC fires if κ_α < 0.40 after calibration protocol. | Recruit 3+ scorers. Protocol: contribute-scores.html |
BIO-3 |
Paper 41 | KC fires if any D3 obligate behavioral parasite is confirmed with V < 8 in systematic literature survey. | Comparative parasitology literature — Toxoplasma, Ophiocordyceps, etc. |
CAN-4 |
Paper 43 | KC fires if Spearman(V_score_at_diagnosis, time_to_resistance) < 0.6 in TCGA cohort. | TCGA public cancer data — open access |
GFC-4/5 |
Paper 44 | KC fires if 3 of next 5 major DAO failures occur without C_ZERO crossing in governance discourse first. | DeepDAO + Tally + forum archives — ongoing |
LLM-P3 |
nb_llm01 / EXP-025 | KC fires if structural void index scores (O, R, C) across ≥20 AI platforms do NOT correlate with independently coded D1/D2/D3 drift outcomes — Spearman ρ < 0.30, p > 0.10. Sampling frame pre-registered independent of vendor cooperation. | Run EXP-025 — score ≥20 platforms using O/R/C rubric, code drift outcomes from independent public datasets, pre-register platform list before scoring. |
| Code | Paper | Condition | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
KC-4D-1 | 4D | b_α, b_γ don't generalize beyond AI substrate at 2σ | NOT TRIGGERED |
KC-4D-2 | 4D | K-scaling non-linear (Pe ≠ K·sinh(2b_net) at ≥3 K values) | NOT TRIGGERED |
KC-4D-3 | 4D | c_zero is K-dependent (varies >5%) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — K-invariant confirmed nb16 |
KC-4D-4 | 4D | AI at K≥22 does not require stronger grounding | NOT TRIGGERED |
CON-1 | 39 | Any R≤1 institution with Pe>0 replicated | NOT TRIGGERED |
CON-2 | 39 | Nones tracks identity salience, not institution change | NOT TRIGGERED |
CON-3 | 39 | Televangelism Pe ≤ 1 | NOT TRIGGERED |
AI-1 | 40 | CEN/CENELEC <3 structural clusters or clusters don't map O/R/α | PENDING — standards not published |
BIO-1 | 41 | Pe_THRML ≠ 4Ns (>1% deviation at s<0.01) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ratio = 1.000003 |
BIO-2 | 41 | Abiotic competitor drives Red Queen (R=0 biotic void sustains arms race) | NOT TRIGGERED |
BIO-3 | 41 | D3 parasite with V<8 confirmed in literature | OPEN — needs survey |
BIO-4 | 41 | Arms race without V>5.52 in ≥3 pairs | OPEN |
BIO-5 | 41 | Spearman(V_evo, cascade_stage) <0.80 at N≥20 | OPEN |
BIO-6 | 41 | sinh enhancement absent at high s (ratio <1.01 at s=0.15) | NOT TRIGGERED |
SOC-4 | 42 | Neocortex ratio fails cross-clade prediction (ρ<0.85, N≥15 non-primate) | NOT TRIGGERED |
SOC-5 | 42 | Theory of mind doesn't emerge at V*=5.52 threshold | OPEN — needs study |
SOC-6 | 42 | Reducing captive group size doesn't reduce ToM performance | OPEN — needs study |
SOC-7 | 42 | Autism not associated with structural R-dimension reduction on void rubric | OPEN — needs study |
SOC-8 | 42 | Human LOO minimum <0.85 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — LOO min = 0.9101 |
CAN-4 | 43 | Spearman(V, time-to-resistance) <0.6 in TCGA cohort | OPEN — needs TCGA data |
CAN-5 | 43 | τ_R/τ_E fails to rank combination therapy failure modes | OPEN |
CAN-6 | 43 | Polyvalent vaccines don't outperform narrow-epitope by ≥2× | OPEN |
CAN-7 | 43 | V<9 cancer type metastasizes at stage II | OPEN |
GFC-1 | 44 | Token-vote DAO scores ≥7/12 on governance model | NOT TRIGGERED |
GFC-2 | 44 | >15% turnout sustained 4 quarters in token-vote DAO without incentives | NOT TRIGGERED |
GFC-3 | 44 | Token-vote Gini>0.85 achieves outcome correlation ≥0.6 | NOT TRIGGERED |
GFC-4 | 44 | Pe(ritual)>Pe(prohibition) DAO doesn't fail faster than prohibition-only | OPEN — future DAOs |
GFC-5 | 44 | 3 of next 5 major DAO failures without C_ZERO crossing in discourse | OPEN — ongoing |
GIR-1 | 45 | ρ(Pe_mech, rebound_rate) <0.80 at N≥20 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ρ=0.9625 |
GIR-2 | 45 | Transparency cases don't rebound slower than void cases | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — 16× differential documented |
GIR-3 | 45 | Transparency/void rebound ratio <4× in ≥3 replication events | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — 16× ratio >> 4× threshold |
GIR-4 | 45 | Opaque ritual doesn't convert transparency events to repetitions | OPEN |
GIR-5 | 45 | Yom Kippur doesn't represent lowest Pe in cross-cultural sample | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — confirmed most negative Pe |
PRT-1 | 45 | Prohibition-only achieves dual (prohibition+ritual) stability | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ρ=0.8684 |
PRT-2 | 45 | 4-quadrant failure ordering wrong (any quadrant out of sequence) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — 4yr, 10yr, 15yr, 42yr confirmed in order |
PRT-3 | 45 | Stability theorem fails — dual-system without both components achieves dual mean | NOT TRIGGERED |
PRT-4 | 45 | Social media as opaque pseudo-ritual doesn't drive cancel cycle | OPEN |
PRT-5 | 45 | LOO <0.80 on any culture removal | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — LOO min = 0.8463 |
DUR-1 | 45 | ρ(R_institutional, anomic_rate) > −0.70 at N=20 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ρ=−0.9785 |
DUR-2 | 45 | Modern replication (WGI proxy) achieves significance | PARTIAL FAIL — measurement gap, not framework |
DUR-3 | 45 | Suicide type → dimension mapping fails (egoistic/anomic swap) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — mapping confirmed correct |
DUR-4 | 45 | Protestant NOT > Catholic anomic rate | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — differential confirmed |
DUR-5 | 45 | |ρ| <0.80 across nb41/nb_girard02/nb_girard03 cross-framework check | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — all |ρ| > 0.80 |
| Code | Notebook | Condition | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
MM-1 | nb25 | Kyle's λ non-monotone with Pe in any of 8 market venues | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ρ=1.000 across all 8 venues |
MM-2 | nb25 | IEX speed bump has no Pe effect | OPEN |
MM-3 | nb25 | Dark pool Pe ≤ lit exchange Pe | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — dark pool Pe > lit exchange Pe confirmed |
GB-1 | nb26 | RMSE(V3 bridge) > RMSE(V1 or V2) at N≥25 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — V3 outperforms; V1/V2 falsified as standalone |
GB-2 | nb26 | c=1−V/9 fails out-of-sample on new substrate (ρ<0.85) | OPEN — new substrates needed |
GB-3 | nb26 | Product or ratio form achieves lower RMSE than additive V3 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — additive V3 form optimal |
GB-4 | nb26 | LOO minimum <0.85 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — LOO min = 0.892 |
G2-1 | nb27 | F-test rejects equal dimension weights (p<0.05) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — p=0.41, equal weighting holds |
G2-2 | nb27 | b_O/b_R >3× in bootstrap — opacity dominates | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — all three dimensions contribute equally |
G2-3 | nb27 | κ_all=0.80 drops mean ρ below 0.80 | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — noise averaging robust |
VR-1 | nb29 | Any 3 new substrates fail ρ<0.85 | OPEN — new substrates needed |
VR-2 | nb39 | Live IRR study: κ_α <0.40 (pre-registered) | OPEN — live study needed |
VR-3 | nb39 | Post-training κ_α <0.60 after calibration protocol | OPEN — live study needed |
REH-1 | nb21 | Recovery NOT slower than entry (τ_R/τ_E <1.2). Must be measured in condition A (constraint alone) vs. D (control) — condition C alone insufficient. | NOT TRIGGERED |
REH-2 | nb21 | τ_R/τ_E non-linear in Pe. 4-condition RCT precondition (EXP-026). | NOT TRIGGERED |
REH-3 | nb21 | Platform cleared at same speed as flagged. T=0 snapshot protocol required. | NOT TRIGGERED |
REH-4 | nb21 | τ_R(Pe=22)/τ_R(Pe=3) <2. Pe levels assigned at T=0 snapshot. | NOT TRIGGERED |
REG-1 | nb22 | Δc_crit identical across all substrates | NOT TRIGGERED |
REG-2 | nb22 | Bear market Δc sufficient — Wilcoxon effect disappears | NOT TRIGGERED |
REG-3 | nb22 | 0.5×Δc_crit → durable Pe<1 | NOT TRIGGERED |
REG-4 | nb22 | No finite intervention time T achieves durable suppression | NOT TRIGGERED |
LLM-P1 | nb_llm01 | Bond→dimension mapping ρ<0.85 (Chen et al. conditions) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ρ=0.9879 |
LLM-P2 | nb_llm01 | Metacognitive oscillation uncorrelated with Pe (ρ<0.70) | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — ρ=0.9273 |
LLM-P3 | nb_llm01 | Structural void scores don't predict D1/D2/D3 outcomes across ≥20 AI platforms (ρ<0.30). EXP-025. | OPEN — EXP-025 needed |
LLM-P4 | nb_llm01 | |ρ(f_SR)| < |ρ(f_DR)| or |ρ(f_SE)| — wrong bond discriminates | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — f_SR confirmed most discriminating |
LLM-P5 | nb_llm01 | V3 bridge c≠1−V/9 in LLM substrate | CONFIRMED SURVIVED — V3 bridge holds in LLM domain |
Last updated: 2026-03-01. Source of truth: private/notes/kill-conditions-master.md.
All conditions pre-registered before testing. Status changes logged in
public GitHub.