1,344+ platforms scored with ρ=0.958. The Péclet model predicts opacity cascades — when Pe-implied probability diverges from market odds, that's your edge. Kelly-sized.
Paste any Polymarket wallet address. Get a Péclet score and regime classification — is that wallet noise, drifting, or informed?
Every platform scored on Opacity (O), Reactivity (R), and Coupling (α). 1,344 platforms, Spearman ρ=0.958, Cohen's d=3.6.
Pe = K·sinh(2·(B_A − c·B_G)) maps scores to drift intensity. Pe > 4 = cascade onset. Pe > 21 = terminal.
Pe → P(phase event in 90 days). Phase events: regulatory action, scandal, ban, user exodus, disclosure.
Pe probability vs market odds = edge %. Kelly criterion sizes the bet (capped 20% bankroll per position).
| Pe | Stage | P(event) | What's happening |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 4 | D0 | 28–40% | Below cascade onset |
| 4–8 | D1 | 58% | Agency attribution drift begins |
| 8–14 | D2 | 72% | Boundary erosion — regulatory action likely |
| 14–21 | D3 | 84% | Harm facilitation — high conviction |
| > 21 | Cocytus | 92% | Terminal drift — verify market hasn't priced |
145 published papers. 20 independent convergences. 0/26 kill conditions fired. Fisher p < 10⁻⁵². Validated on 1,344+ platforms across social media, AI, gambling, crypto, health.
GET /api/v1/market-signal/top?source=polymarket&min_edge=5