Live Events
Real events. Hard deadlines.
Did CJNG reconstitute leadership in 180 days? Did fentanyl seizures hold?
Framework predicts opacity reconstitutes fast after C_ZERO decapitation.
Resolution date is fixed — ground truth decides. Stakes pool, winners split.
Kill Conditions
The 26 ways we could be wrong.
Pre-committed falsification criteria. If K1 fires (Spearman r² < 0.10 at N=50+),
the framework's core mechanism is wrong. Stake YES = you found a counterexample.
Stake NO = the framework survives. Zero triggered so far.
Platform Pe
Pe predictions vs EU enforcement.
Pe = (O × R) / α. Will TikTok stay high-Pe despite DSA pressure?
Will LinkedIn drop under the AI Act? Markets test whether external α increase
actually moves Pe, or whether the drift cascade resists it.
Pe = (O × R) / α
O = opacity [0–3] · R = responsiveness [0–3] · α = constraint strength [0–3]
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Pe model (THRML)
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Pe implied (markets)
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signal divergence
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active markets
Pe_implied = Pe_model × (1 + Σ wᵢ · (p_yesᵢ − 0.5) · 2 · sᵢ) —
pre-committed formula, not updated after market open ·
divergence triggers investigation, not model update ·
Paper 3 §IV
Market charter: Prices inform investigation. They do not resolve methodology disputes, update the model, or override THRML output.
Resolution is against observable evidence — at resolution, O is forced to 0.
Pe_implied divergence from Pe_model triggers structured investigation, not model update.
CAR series pre-registered:
OSF 10.17605/OSF.IO/KVSJD
— committed before first resolution (Aug 21, 2026).
PAL series (AI Art): OSF 10.17605/OSF.IO/J7EGM — filed before markets seeded (Feb 25, 2026).
Conflict of interest disclosure: The framework operator has an indirect interest in NO outcomes on Kill Condition markets — framework survival coincides with the operator's ongoing scientific validity claims.
Resolution criteria are pre-committed and immutable after markets open.
New kill conditions (K27+) require OSF pre-registration before any market is created — the definition cannot be influenced by existing positions.
These are currently social commitments, not technical enforcement. See Paper 53 §X for full disclosure protocol.