FROM PAPER 7: THREE-CHAIN VALIDATION
On-Chain Void Score API
Per-wallet drift-risk scores extracted directly from public blockchain data. Three chains. N=3,028 wallets validated. Zero-cost measurement. Built for the platforms traders already use.
Three-chain validation
The Wallet Concentration Index (WCI) — a Herfindahl measure of portfolio concentration — serves as a behavioral proxy for drift on the Bernoulli manifold. Higher Pe = more drift-dominated trading.
Ethereum
Base
Solana
GM Pe across all three chains: non-overlapping CIs confirm drift regime is structural, not chain-specific artifact. Curated degens (N=28): GM Pe = 25.5. 27 of 28 drift-dominated.
Natural Experiment: Base Dencun Fee Reduction
When Base L2 transaction fees dropped 98% after the Dencun upgrade, Pe increased +25% (0.53 → 0.67, p < 0.000001, N=1,944 wallets). Lower friction → more drift. This is the compound void signature: TCI↓ / Pe↑ = diversified drift.
How it works
Index wallet
Pull full transaction history from RPC. Any wallet, any chain.
Compute WCI
Herfindahl concentration index over time windows. Maps to θ on the Bernoulli manifold.
Extract Pe
WCI trajectory → Péclet number. Pe > 1 = drift-dominated. Pe < 1 = diffusion-dominated.
Score + alert
Risk tier assignment. Webhook alerts on trajectory changes. Real-time monitoring.
Key advantage: Every transaction is public, every wallet reconstructable, every drift trajectory auditable. No other measurement substrate offers this level of transparency. The measurement is fully observable — no self-report bias, no survey artifacts.
Hostile witness: traders named every stage
68 terms from crypto culture map 1:1 onto the drift cascade. Traders independently invented vocabulary for every stage the framework predicts. 2.78:1 drift-to-constraint ratio. Sample:
Full 68-term codebook in Paper 7. The vocabulary drift is unidirectional: L1→L2→L3 in days, not months. Fastest documented across all 90 domains.
What you can build with this
Wallet Risk Dashboard
Add a drift-risk indicator to any wallet tracker. Show users their Pe trajectory over time. "Your trading pattern matches the drift-dominated regime."
Protocol Void Rating
Score any DeFi protocol's void properties. Opacity (is the code readable?), responsiveness (does it adapt to you?), coupling (does it capture attention?).
Degen Risk Signal
Real-time alerting when a wallet transitions from diffusion to drift regime. "This wallet just entered the curated degen range (Pe > 20)."
Stablecoin Constraint Index
Score stablecoins against the constraint specification. Transparent, invariant, independent. USDC scores higher than USDT. The math shows why.
Why this doesn't exist yet
Everyone measures what traders trade. We measure how the architecture captures attention.
Four coupled opacity layers
Token void (price unknowable) + Community void (pseudonymous) + Protocol void (smart contract opacity) + Market-maker void (MEV/order flow). No other asset class has this compound structure.
Meme coins = second gambling proof
After slot machines, meme coins are the second provably empty void. No utility, no revenue, no team — yet the full drift cascade runs. Architecture is sufficient.
Stablecoins as natural constraint
The first financial instrument that maps to the constraint specification. Transparent (reserves audited), invariant (pegged), independent (not correlated to the void). The control case was sitting in the ecosystem all along.
Early access
The API is in private beta. We're looking for integration partners — wallet trackers, portfolio apps, and risk dashboards that want to add drift-risk scoring.
The research is open. The methodology is published. The measurement is the product. Read Paper 7 →