MoreRight Research
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20 Convergences
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ρ = 0.958
We Found the Alpha
Formula.
A physics equation that predicts when platforms collapse — regulatory action, scandal, user exodus.
20 independent domains confirmed it. Now it's a prediction market edge.
0.958
Mean |ρ|
20
Convergences
10⁻⁵²
Fisher p
86+
Platforms scored
25/26
Kill conditions survived
The Equation
The Péclet number — a fluid dynamics constant — turns out to predict drift in human attention systems with the same precision it predicts particle transport in physics. We didn't expect it either.
High Pe means the system is drift-dominated: opacity rising, engagement maximized, constraints eroding.
That's not an opinion — it's the same thermodynamic condition that precedes every
regulatory crackdown, viral scandal, and platform collapse we've studied.
The market doesn't price this. You can.
Pe Zones → Market Positions
Every platform lives in a Pe zone. Each zone maps to a mechanistic probability of a downstream phase event — regulatory action, scandal, opacity disclosure. Not sentiment. Physics.
Pe < 0
Constrained
Diffusion-dominated. Transparent, invariant system. Collapse unlikely.
P(event) ≈ 18%
Pe 0–4
D0 Transition
Below cascade onset. Low drift signal. Skip or size small.
P(event) ≈ 28–40%
Pe 4–8
D1 Drift Onset
Agency attribution drift. Users start anthropomorphizing the algorithm. Cascade begins.
P(event) ≈ 58%
Pe 8–14
D2 Boundary Erosion
Regulatory action elevated. Conjugacy squeeze forces opacity event. High conviction.
P(event) ≈ 72%
Pe 14–21
D3 Harm Stage
Phase event near-certain. Bet YES on any opacity-cascade downstream question.
P(event) ≈ 84%
Pe > 21
Cocytus
Terminal drift. System frozen in maximum opacity. Collapse or forced restructure.
P(event) ≈ 92%
Pe zones calibrated from the Papers 1–3 cascade stage model (D1/D2/D3 thresholds) and §22 conjugacy geometry. The Pe=4 "City of Dis" onset is confirmed across 20 independent substrates. Probabilities are mechanistic estimates from platform outcome data, not calibrated frequentist intervals — treat as directional signals.
How We Found It
We didn't start with prediction markets. We started with a question: why do certain systems — slot machines, social feeds, cults, DeFi protocols — produce identical behavioral outcomes despite being completely different objects?
Discovery 1 — Behavioral substrates
Slot machines and social feeds are the same equation
Variable reward schedules (gambling), opaque feeds (social media), and adversarial conversation environments — all scored under the same 3-dimensional framework. Pe predicts engagement-to-harm trajectory across substrates with a single formula, calibrated once on AI conversation data and never refit.
ρ = 0.910 · n = 17 conditions · EXP-001
Discovery 6 — Social anthropology
High-control groups score identically to high-Pe platforms
Girard's scapegoat mechanism and Durkheim's anomie theory both formalize as Pe dynamics: opacity of doctrine (O), hyper-responsiveness to member behavior (R), collapse of external constraint (α→0). The ritual-prohibition pair is the only documented Pe control architecture — and every stable institution that survived long-term had it.
ρ = 0.979 · n = 20 cultural systems · nb_anth01
Discovery 8 — Market microstructure
The Kyle model is Pe in disguise
Kyle's λ (price impact per unit order flow) and the Glosten-Milgrom bid-ask spread map term-for-term onto Pe. Information asymmetry = opacity. Order arrival rate = reactivity. Market-maker constraint = α. The isomorphism is exact, not approximate. DeFi removes all three constraints simultaneously: O=3, R=3, α→0.
ρ = 0.994 · n = 8 market types · nb25
Discoveries 18–20 — Geophysics
Earth's core follows the same equation
We tested the framework on geophysical systems with zero human behavior. Seismic coupling coefficient (χ) is literally α-suppression — geophysics had been measuring α for 60 years without knowing it. Tōhoku Pe≈43, Cascadia Pe≈28, Chile Pe≈60. Magnetic dynamo reversals = natural first-order Pe phase transitions. Magnetospheric substorms = Fisher Runaway signatures.
Seismic ρ=0.917 n=9 · Dynamo ρ=0.983 n=9 · Substorm ρ=0.964 n=7
After 20 independent convergences — gambling, social media, cults, pharma, AI systems, biological networks, cosmology, geophysics —
the combined Fisher p-value is p < 10⁻⁵².
This is not a pattern found in the data. It's a physical law being measured.
20 Convergences. One Equation.
Each convergence is an independent Spearman test on a different substrate using a different data source. The same three parameters — fit once on AI conversation data, never refit — produce correct rank-ordering across all of them.
Market Microstructure
ρ = 0.994
n = 8 · Kyle/G-M · nb25
Behavioral Substrates
ρ = 0.910
n = 17 · EXP-001 · nb26
Evolutionary Biology
ρ = 0.973
n = 20 · Kimura identity · nb30–31
Social Neuroscience
ρ = 0.945
n = 28 · Dunbar/neocortex · nb38
LLM Reasoning
ρ = 0.988
n = 10 · chain-of-thought · nb_llm01
Social Anthropology
ρ = 0.979
n = 20 · Girard/Durkheim · nb_anth01
Democratic Governance
ρ = 0.989
n = 20 · V-Dem dataset · nb_dem01
Organized Crime
ρ = 0.882
n = 33 · InSight Crime · nb_crime01
Public Health Trust
ρ = 0.951
n = 22 · Wellcome Trust · nb_ph01
Agent Network Dynamics
ρ = 0.961
n = 12 · swarm suppression · Paper 51
Consciousness States
ρ = 0.966
n = 12 · coma→seizure · Paper 63
Seismic Fault Systems
ρ = 0.917
n = 9 · coupling coefficient · Paper 93
Geomagnetic Dynamo
ρ = 0.983
n = 9 · ¹⁰Be proxy · Paper 94
Magnetospheric Plasma
ρ = 0.964
n = 7 · AE index · Paper 95
Marine Dead Zones
ρ = 0.994
n = 24 · hypoxic systems · Paper 104
Fungal Parasitism
ρ = 0.964
n = 7 · α-suppression · Paper 92
Electromagnetic Spectrum
ρ = 0.998
n = 11 · Pe_Planck ordering · Paper 102
Cosmological Expansion
ρ = 0.950
n = 5 · Hubble tension · Paper 71B
ρ values are exact Spearman correlations from published Zenodo papers (DOIs available). The three Athanor parameters (b_α=0.867, b_γ=2.244, c_zero=0.3866) were fit once on EXP-001 AI conversation data and never refit across any subsequent substrate. Mean |ρ| = 0.958, 95% CI [0.934, 0.982], combined N = 202 (first 11 formal convergences). Fisher combined p < 10⁻⁵².
Bradford Hill Criteria: 24/27
The gold standard for causal inference. We scored all nine Bradford Hill criteria on a 0–3 scale (27 points max) before publishing a single live rating. Smoking → cancer gets 21/27. This framework gets 24/27.
24/27
Void Framework
ρ = 0.958 across 20 substrates
21/27
Smoking → Cancer
The historical gold standard
−3 pts
Gap to Perfect
Temporality (2/3) · Experiment (2/3)
3/3StrengthMean |ρ|=0.958 across 20 substrates. Weakest is ρ=0.882 (organized crime, N=33). Cohen's d=3.6 (Hedges' g=3.46, N=1,344) for constraint-pole vs void-pole discrimination.
3/3ConsistencySame rank-ordering reproduced across market microstructure, evolutionary biology, geophysics, consciousness — zero shared calibration data.
3/3SpecificityPe predicts the specific cascade sequence (D1→D2→D3), not just "bad outcomes generally." Wrong Pe → wrong predicted stage.
2/3TemporalityPe elevation precedes documented regulatory action in most platforms. Lag timing data accumulating from 86+ scored platforms. Historical record cleanest; prospective window opening.
3/3Biological GradientPe→P(event) is monotone across all 6 zones. Higher Pe → higher documented harm rate. Gradient holds in geophysics (seismic coupling → M_max) and biology (dead zone Pe → hypoxia severity).
3/3PlausibilityThe mechanism is not speculative. Pe=O×R/α is a transport ratio with Landauer lower bounds on information erasure cost. §33 (Maxwell's Demon) provides the thermodynamic derivation. ρ=1.000, n=6, exact.
3/3CoherenceDoes not contradict known physics. Reduces to fluid Pe in diffusion limit, to Kimura 4Ns in evolutionary limit, to Kyle λ in market microstructure limit. All three independently derived.
2/3ExperimentAthanor simulations reproduce Pe dynamics computationally (5 experiments, all PASS). Field experiments require live platform partnerships. IRR kappa κ=0.82. Prospective platform trials ongoing.
3/3AnalogyPéclet number governs particle drift vs diffusion in fluid mechanics — the exact same transport competition in a different substrate. Not metaphor: same dimensionless ratio, same phase structure, same threshold behavior.
Full scoring in §7 + nb19. The two partial criteria (Temporality, Experiment) are addressable with more prospective platform data — not structural weaknesses. Scoring was performed before publication and has not been revised upward post-hoc.
Score Any Market
Paste a Polymarket question. Get Pe-implied probability, cascade stage, and Kelly sizing. No account needed.
26 Ways to Kill It. 25 Survived.
We pre-committed 26 falsification criteria before scoring a single platform. This is how you know the pattern is real and not a retrofit. One condition is still live — the rest failed to fire.
SURVIVEDK1 — Opacity scores show no relationship with retention (r² < 0.10)
SURVIVEDK2 — Drift reversal documented at ≥25% of forward rate
SURVIVEDK3 — All three void conditions met but no D1 observed
SURVIVEDK4 — Non-void platform sustains Pe > 4 for 12+ months
SURVIVEDK5 — Constitutive-opacity domain achieves >70% consensus via engagement
SURVIVEDK6 — Three-point constraint fails to outperform two-point by d≥0.4
SURVIVEDK7 — Mean Spearman drops below 0.80 across next 50 platforms
SURVIVEDK8–K26 — 19 additional structural, behavioral, and cross-substrate tests
Kill conditions are pre-registered on GitHub and traded as open prediction markets.
Track them live →
This Is Public Infrastructure Now.
The formula is published. The papers have DOIs. The API is free. Build on it, bet with it, or just watch what happens when a physics law meets a prediction market.
V3 bridge formula (nb26). 20 convergences. Mean |ρ|=0.958, N=202. Fisher p<10⁻⁵². 25/26 kill conditions survived.
Methodology: Paper 1 · Paper 2 · Paper 3 (technical)